When on January 14th there were over 400 polling stations with 100% voter turnout,
when there were dozens of videos showing ballot box stuffing and hundreds of statements and affidavits detailing the fraud,
when there were hundreds of fraudulent DoRs (declaration of results) and when you tweeted one of them, you were exposed by international exports,
and the Electoral Commission ignored complaints about this, you thought the Electoral Commission couldn’t show to be more corrupted and more evil,
YOU WERE WRONG
In the Kayunga by-election of 16 December 2021 the maire (LC5) was to be re-elected after the previous LC5 was found hanging under a tree under suspicious circumstances.
The Museveni government has shown enormous interest in winning back this seat that they lost on 14 January in a landslide victory for National Unity Platform candidate Ffefeka Sserubogo.
The run-up to the elections was marred with incidents.
* Opposition leader Bobi Wine was put under illegal house arrest to prevent him from campaigning in Kayunga. Dictator Museveni did go to Kayunga to campaign.
* NUP candidate Harriet Nakweede was seriously injured on her head while campaigning. Bobi Wine tweeted:
* 4 opposition MPs, and many other high profile opposition leaders have been detained.
* Opposition leader Zaake was seriously beaten up and taken to hospital.
* Polling agents, that are by constitution allowed to monitor the election process were arrested. https://www.ntv.co.ug/ug/news/national/kayunga-by-election-several-opposition-supporters-arrested-3656662
* Voters were given 4000 shillings (1 euro) to convince them to vote the government candidate. https://twitter.com/joycebagala1/status/1471227595081535496
* On multiple locations filled boxes with pre-ticked ballots were found even before the opening of polling stations. https://twitter.com/Mulungi_jasmine/status/1471513070404976640
There were some positive differences with the 14 January elections; the internet was not shutdown and the videos referenced above quickly distributed through Facebook, Whatsapp & Twitter.
The polling stations closed at 4 pm and quickly after the first results came, looking good for NUP candidate Harriet Nakweede. Just after midnight, National Unity Platform claimed a win, saying they had counted 35212 votes for Nakweede versus 20611 votes for Muwonge.
The next day, in the morning, Ugandans were unhappily surprised to hear the Electoral Commission make a totally different announcement.
Interestingly the number of votes for Mussi (470) is almost the same at the NUP tally (468), suggesting the NUP tally is a serious tally.
Later that day Bobi Wine published on Facebook the DoRs that NUP agents received and were the basis of the NUP tally using the hashtag #kayungafraud https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=482155459936930&id=100044274407692
The UVote team also wanted to draw their own conclusions, took the Bobi Wine DoRs and tallied them into a Google Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ICb02Svls0LLkr2WSkhObzZk_Q4zkwA1Qp7V6vENmvg/edit#gid=0
The UVote team tally coincides very much with the NUP tally, and through the Google Spreadsheet above it is easily checked how their tally matches with the Declaration of Results forms.
The difference with the Electoral Commission is not small. In the NUP & UVote tally, Nakweede has over 60% of the votes. In the Electoral Commission count she loses. This is not a mistake, this is not fraud at couple of polling stations, this is clear fraud at the district level and it can only have been approved or likely even ordered by the State House of Museveni.
In the 14 January elections the Museveni government took DoR forms very seriously. They hunted for NUP staff bringing the DoRs to Kampala and confiscated them. As a result, NUP had a very incomplete set of DoRs. Frauds with DoRs (excluding ballot box stuffing) after the DoRs were signed was limited to some 100 occurences, less than 1% of polling stations. More info about the rigging of the January 14th election can be found in the report Rigged: https://uvote.nup-uganda.com/rigged/Rigged.pdf
To make their announcement tally, the Electoral Commission has to alter DoRs on a huge scale. They could choose not to publish the tally sheet and not publish the DoRs (as they did for the presidential elections), but that would be a silent admission of the fraud they committed.